Affordable & Liveable Property Guide Brisbane Metro 2 nd Half 2021
BRISBANE METRO Annual Change^
OVERVIEW
Sales
Median property prices in Brisbane Metro increased by 22.3% for houses to $825,000 from Q3 2020 to Q3 2021*, and by 3.6% for units at $465,000. Between Q3 2020 – Q3 2021 total house sales declined by -11.7% (to 4,902 sales), but unit sales increased by 121.9% (to 4,043 sales). Undersupply is evident in Brisbane Metro’s house market, as price growth is alongside lower transaction volumes, suggesting an imbalance between available stock and high demand. Units show real returns in capital investment, as price growth was sustained by increased sales. $4.8B of projects are planned across the 2nd half of 2021, where mixed-use and residential projects will assist with housing supply. Infrastructure and commercial projects suggest new businesses and improved services. The Olympics 2032 announcement brought a certain buzz into Brisbane’s property market, and with imminent border openings soon, this trend is expected to continue in 2022.
RECENT TOP PERFORMERS Area
Inner
North
South
East
West
Suburb Kangaroo Point
Type
Median Price 2020
Median Price 2021*
House $1,084,000 $1,937,000
Projects 2021***
78.7%
$386.9M
Kangaroo Point
Unit
$520,000
$900,000
73.4%
$386.9M
Carseldine
House
$648,000
$760,000
17.1%
$67.5M
Nundah
Unit
$390,000
$418,000
7.2%
$31.6M
Carindale
House
$919,000
$1,150,000
25.1%
$80.7M
Rochedale
Unit
$587,000
$635,000
8.2%
$171.0M
Lota
House
$690,000
$782,000
13.3%
$30.3M
Murarrie
Unit
$575,000
$605,000
5.2%
$56.0M
Indooroopilly
House
$972,000
$1,344,000
38.2%
$203.4M
Redbank
Unit
$210,000
$263,000
25.2%
$87.8M
This affordable and liveable property guide for Brisbane Metro analyses all suburbs within a 20km radius of the Brisbane CBD. The following criteria were considered: •
Property trends criteria – all suburbs have a minimum of 20 sales transactions for statistical reliability purposes. Based on market conditions suburbs have either positive, or as close as possible to neutral price growth between 2020 to 2021*.
•
Investment criteria – as of September 2021, suburbs considered will have an onpar or higher rental yield than Brisbane Metro, and an on-par or lower vacancy rate.
•
Affordability criteria – identified affordable and liveable suburbs have a median price below a set threshold. This was determined by adding percentage premiums to the Queensland (QLD) average home loan, which was $461,414** as of Q2 2021. Premiums of 56% for houses and -3% for units were added, which were below those required to reach Brisbane Metro’s median prices (79% for houses and 1% for units). This places the chosen suburbs below Brisbane’s median prices, meaning that the suburbs identified within this report are more affordable for buyers.
•
Rental Price
Sales Median Price Rental Price
MEDIAN SALE PRICE Price Growth
METHODOLOGY
•
Median Price
Development criteria – suburbs identified must have a high total estimated value of future project development for the 2nd half of 2021, as well as a higher proportion of commercial and infrastructure projects. This ensures the suburbs show signs of sustainable economic growth, in turn positively affecting the property market. Liveability criteria – all identified suburbs have low crime rates, availability of amenities within a 5km radius (i.e. schools, green spaces, public transport, shopping centres and health care facilities), and an unemployment rate on-par or lower in comparison to the QLD average (as determined by the Department of Jobs and Small Business, June Quarter 2021 release).
*Median price quoted captures sale transactions from 1st January 2021 to 30th September 2021, or Q1 2020 – Q3 2021. **Average home loan figure is derived from June Quarter 2021 Housing Affordability Report by the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) and Adelaide Bank. ***Project development is based on aggregate of estimated construction value for residential, commercial, industrial, mixed-use and infrastructure projects scheduled to commence in the 2nd half of 2021 as stated by the relevant data authority. ^Annual Change is reflective of median price change from Q3 2020 to Q3 2021. Figures displayed in infographics are for the period Q3 2020. Source: APM Pricefinder, REIA, SQM Research, Cordell Connect, Department of Jobs and Small Business. © PRD 2021.
$825k
$465K
HOUSE
UNIT
MEDIAN RENTAL PRICE
$500
$425
HOUSE
UNIT
BENCHMARKS BRISBANE METRO
3.7%
5.2%
HOUSE YIELD
UNIT YIELD
1.4%
VACANCY RATE
BENCHMARKS QUEENSLAND
5.1% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
AVERAGE HOME LOAN
$461,414
AVERAGE VENDOR DISCOUNT
KEY COMMENTS Average vendor discounts between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 have swung to a premium for both property types, at 3.0% for houses and 0.2% for units. The Brisbane Metro market conditions have shifted to favour sellers, where buyers must offer above the initial listing price. The average vendor discount for houses have swung to a premium since Q1 2021, for the past 3 quarters. Now is the time to transact, before the premium paid climbs further.
-1.1%
-2.6%
-1.0%
-2.9%
-2.0%
-3.5%
-1.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
0.2%
-0.5%
1.4%
1.0%
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
-2.9%
Change from Listing to Sale Price
4.0%
-3.0%
The dominant proportion of homes sold in Brisbane Metro across 2021# were in the premium price bracket of $850,000 and above (41.7%). Units also recorded a dominant premium price bracket of $550,000 and above (35.5%). There is a shift towards premium pricing in Brisbane Metro. Affordable options are still available, however have shrunk in the past 12 months.
-4.0% Q2 2020
Q3 2020
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
House
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Unit
MARKET PERFORMANCE House Sales
Unit Sales
House Median
Unit Median
$900,000
7,000
$800,000
6,000
$700,000 5,000
$600,000 $500,000
4,000
$400,000
3,000
$300,000
2,000
$200,000 1,000
$100,000 $0
0 Q3 2020
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
PRICE BREAKDOWN 2021# HOUSES SOLD
UNITS SOLD
16.2%
Less than $549,999 $550,000 to $649,999
41.7%
13.9%
14.5%
32.4%
35.5%
Less than $399,999 $400,000 to $449,999
$650,000 to $749,999
$450,000 to $499,999
$750,000 to $849,999
$500,000 to $549,999
$850,000 and above
13.7%
#2021
8.0%
12.8% 11.3%
encapsulates sales transactions for Q3 2020 – Q3 2021 (01/01/2020 – 30/09/2021) only. Source: APM Pricefinder. © Copyright PRD 2021.
$550,000 and above
BRISBANE METRO MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE 2021* 20KM FROM CBD
1
4 5
6
3
2
BRISBANE AFFORDABLE & LIVEABLE SUBURBS LEGEND
RENTAL YIELD
Data not available Suburb
House
1
Bracken Ridge
3.9%
2
Oxley
3
Birkdale
$0 - $500,000
Suburb
Unit
4
McDowall
5.4%
3.8%
5
Gordon Park
5.6%
3.8%
6
Kedron
5.6%
$500,000 - $800,000 $800,000 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 $2,000,000+ 20km from CBD Translucent colours for <20 sales
*House median price reflected in the heat-map captures sale transactions from 1st January 2021 to 30th September 2021. Source: APM Pricefinder, ESRI ArcGIS, SQM Research. © PRD 2021.
RENTAL GROWTH 2021 € In September 2021, house rental yields in Brisbane Metro were recorded at 3.7%. In the 12 months to Q3 2021, the median house rental price increased by 11.1% to $500 per week, further complemented with a low average days on the market, of 21 days. The house rental market has continued to show strong growth, proving its gains to reluctant investors. Four bedroom+ houses recorded the highest annual rental growth (of +10.0%) to reach $550 per week. There is a direct correlation to the increase in median house rental price, of 11.1%, proving profitability despite an increase in median house sale price. More people are working from home, therefore tenants are seeking extra space for a home office. In September 2021, Brisbane Metro recorded a low vacancy rate of 1.4%, well below that of Sydney Metro (2.7%) and Melbourne Metro (3.5%). Vacancy rates in Brisbane Metro remained well below the Real Estate Institute of Australia’s healthy benchmark of 3.0%, even throughout COVID-19. Brisbane Metro’s vacancy rate continues to show a declining trend since January 2021, showcasing historical low trends in the past 18 months. This should provide greater confidence to investors.
2 Bed House
3 Bed House
4+ Bed House
1 Bed Unit
2 Bed Unit
3+ Bed Unit
+2.6%
+5.9%
+10.0%
+5.7%
+4.9%
+4.4%
$400
$450
$550
$370
$425
$470
RENTAL VACANCY RATES 2021 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
REIA 'Healthy' Benchmark
RENTAL YIELD 2021 §
3.7%
2.2%
2.5%
5.2%
3.4%
3.4%
Brisbane Metro
Sydney Metro
Melbourne Metro
Brisbane Metro
Sydney Metro
Melbourne Metro
€ Annual rental growth is a comparison between Q3 2020 – Q3 2021 (01/01/2020 – 30/09/2021) house median rent figures. § Rental yields shown are as reported at September 2021. Source: APM Pricefinder, SQM Research. © Copyright PRD 2021.
Sep-21
Jun-21
Mar-21
Dec-20
Melbourne Metro
Sep-20
Jun-20
Brisbane Metro
Mar-20
Dec-19
Sep-19
Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
Sep-18
Sydney Metro
PROPERTY CLOCK - HOUSES Peak
Upswing
Downswing
Bottom
AFFORDABLE & LIVEABLE HOUSE SUBURBS BRACKEN RIDGE 4017
OXLEY 4075
BIRKDALE 4159
2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed
2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed
2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed
Located about 16.0km from the Brisbane CBD. Median House Price $624,000 • 2 Bed Median Price $450,000* • 3 Bed Median Price $580,000 • 4+ Bed Median Price $626,000
Located about 11.0km from the Brisbane CBD. Median House Price $695,000 • 2 Bed Median Price $631,000* • 3 Bed Median Price $657,000 • 4+ Bed Median Price $775,000
Located about 18.0km from the Brisbane CBD. Median House Price $720,000 • 2 Bed Median Price $547,000* • 3 Bed Median Price $572,000 • 4+ Bed Median Price $785,000
Annual Median Price Growth
18.9%**
Annual Median Price Growth
17.8%**
Annual Median Price Growth
13.6%**
Vacancy Rate (Sep-21)
0.5%
Vacancy Rate (Sep-21)
0.9%
Vacancy Rate (Sep-21)
0.6%
Rental Yield (Sep-21)
3.9%%
Rental Yield (Sep-21)
3.8%
Rental Yield (Sep-21)
3.8%
Key Amenity (5km)
Chermside Westfield Shopping Centre
Key Amenity (5km)
Indooroopilly Shopping Centre
Key Amenity (5km)
Redland Hospital
Total Projects ($)
Key Project
Unemployment Rate
$30.2M^ Bracken Ridge Units ($8.7M, 28 Units)
3.6%
Total Projects ($)
Key Project
Unemployment Rate
$6.2M^ Douglas Street Units ($3.5M, 14 Units)
4.4%
Total Projects ($)
Key Project
Unemployment Rate
$8.5M^ Collingwood Road Development Site ($4.8m)
4.5%
^Quoted estimated values of projects are based on reported land/construction values as stated by the relevant data authority and do not signify their commercial/resale value. *Median price is quoted as an indication only due to having less than 20 sales transactions. **Median price growth quoted captures sale transactions from 1st January 2021 to 30th September 2021, or Q1 2021 – Q3 2021. Source: APM Pricefinder, SQM Research, Cordell Connect, Department of Small Jobs and Business, Google Maps. © PRD 2021.
PROPERTY CLOCK - UNITS Peak
Upswing
Downswing
Bottom
AFFORDABLE & LIVEABLE UNIT SUBURBS MCDOWALL 4053
GORDON PARK 4031
KEDRON 4031
1 Bed 2 Bed 3+ Bed
1 Bed 2 Bed 3+ Bed
1 Bed 2 Bed 3+ Bed
Located about 9.5km from the Brisbane CBD. Median Unit Price $423,000 • 1 Bed Median Price N/A • 2 Bed Median Price $357,000* • 3+ Bed Median Price $480,000*
Located about 6.0km from the Brisbane CBD. Median Unit Price $440,000 • 1 Bed Median Price $334,000* • 2 Bed Median Price $342,000 • 3+ Bed Median Price $564,000
Annual Median Price Growth
0.8%**
Annual Median Price Growth
2.9%**
Annual Median Price Growth
14.4%**
Vacancy Rate (Sep-21)
0.7%
Vacancy Rate (Sep-21)
0.8%
Vacancy Rate (Sep-21)
0.8%
Rental Yield (Sep-21)
5.4%
Rental Yield (Sep-21)
5.6%
Rental Yield (Sep-21)
5.6%
Key Amenities (5km) Total Projects ($)
Key Project Unemployment Rate
Chermside Westfield Shopping Centre $33.9M^ Mcdowall Residences ($33.9M, 113 Lots)
2.7%
Key Amenities (5km) Total Projects ($) Key Project Unemployment Rate
Chermside Westfield Shopping Centre $3.0M^ Pavilions On Burnaby ($3.0M, 7 Townhouses)
4.4%
Located about 7.0km from the Brisbane CBD. Median Unit Price $449,000 • 1 Bed Median Price $314,000* • 2 Bed Median Price $373,000 • 3+ Bed Median Price $595,000
Key Amenities (5km) Total Projects ($) Key Project Unemployment Rate
Chermside Westfield Shopping Centre $11.7M^ Gallagher Terrace Units ($11.0M, 37 Units)
4.4%
^Quoted estimated values of projects are based on reported land/construction values as stated by the relevant data authority and do not signify their commercial/resale value. *Median price is quoted as an indication only due to having less than 20 sales transactions. **Median price growth quoted captures sale transactions from 1st January 2021 to 30th September 2021, or Q1 2021 – Q3 2021. Source: APM Pricefinder, SQM Research, Cordell Connect, Department of Small Jobs and Business, Google Maps. © PRD 2021.
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT MAP 2ND HALF 2021*
LEGEND Commercial Infrastructure Industrial Mixed-use Residential
$470.5M
$890.1M $918.2M $1.2B $1.3B
Project£
Location
Type
Estimated Valueµ
Suburb
1
Reside Retirement Village Carindale
Commercial
$50,000,000
Carindale
2
Rochedale Town Centre Mixed Development
Commercial
$70,000,000
Rochedale
3
Bernborough Ascot Stages 2-4
Commercial
$74,000,000
Ascot
4
Kangaroo Point Green Bridge (Kpgb)
Infrastructure
$190,000,000
Kangaroo Point
5
Moggill Road Corridor
Infrastructure
$180,000,000
Indooroopilly
6
Northern Transitway
Infrastructure
$53,000,000
Chermside
7
Centenary Motorway Bridge Works
Infrastructure
$150,000,000
Jindalee
8
Breakfast Creek Green Bridge
Infrastructure
$67,000,000
Newstead
9
Skye Apartments- (68 Units)
Mixed-use
$60,000,000
Kangaroo Point
10
Boggo Road Mixed Use Development- (318 Units)
Mixed-use
$60,000,000
Dutton Park
11
Akin Residences- (190 Units)
Mixed-use
$70,000,000
South Brisbane
12
Lake@waterfront Precinct
Mixed-use
$200,000,000
Newstead
13
Trilogy- (525 Apartments)
Mixed-use
$100,000,000
Kangaroo Point
14
Ferny Grove Station Precinct (Tod) - Ferny Grove Central- (82 Units)
Mixed-use
$100,000,000
Ferny Grove
15
Albion Exchange- (253 Units)
Mixed-use
$107,300,000
Albion
16
Newstead Precinct Mixed Use Development Stages 1-2 - Liv Anura- (395 Units)
Mixed-use
$118,500,000
Newstead
17
Cordelia Street Mixed Use Development- (265 Units)
Mixed-use
$95,000,000
South Brisbane
18
Brickworks Park Residential Development Stages 1-3- (171 Apartments)
Residential
$66,600,000
Alderley
19
Cornerstone Living Residential Development- (171 Apartments, 51 Townhouses)
Residential
$160,000,000
Coopers Plains
20
Arabella Residential Development- (170 Townhouses)
Residential
$53,000,000
Darra
* Project development map showcases a sample of upcoming projects only, due to accuracy of addresses provided by the data provider for geocoding purposes. £ Top Projects are based on suburbs located within a 20km radial distance of the Brisbane CBD. µ Estimated value is the value of construction costs provided by relevant data authority, it does not reflect the project’s sale/commercial value. Source: Cordell Connect database, ESRI ArcGIS. © PRD 2021.
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